Today, the Public Health Insider posted two updates underlining the importance of continued vigilance around social distancing. Both are full of helpful visualizations and reports on data modeling around social distancing here and throughout the country.
The first article links to a helpful visualization of social distancing from the UW Network Modeling Group. And the second re-visits the recent report by the Bellevue-based Institute for Disease Modeling (IDM) published on Saturday. Their COVID-19 Data Dashboard is really helpful.
As quoted in today’s update from Public Health, “We’ve done a very good job in King County suppressing transmission of COVID-19 and that’s largely due to the great work of our community in staying home and distancing to the extent possible,” said Dr. Jeff Duchin, Health Officer for Public Health – Seattle & King County. “However, we still have way too many cases occurring each day. That means we’re vulnerable to a rebound that could potentially overwhelm our healthcare system if we prematurely ease up on our distancing steps.”
Otherwise, this daily synthesis of the Public Health data is provided by Will Daugherty of Pacific Science Center. Thanks Will!
Public Health has updated the data dashboard. As of 11:59 pm yesterday, April 26, there were 5,990 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in King County, 78 more than the previous day. There have been 416 confirmed deaths in King County due to COVID-19, 6.9% of all confirmed cases.
The numbers that Public Health reports each day include delayed results from previous days.
Observations
The three graphs below chart new cases, total case count and the logarithmic trajectory of cases.
The first graph shows new cases (blue bars) and the 7-day average (red line). Of the 78 new cases reported today, 67 were confirmed yesterday and the remaining 11 were confirmed in previous days but reported to Public Health in the last day, resulting in restatements of the totals for previous days. The 7-day average has been in decline since April 1. The trailing 7-day average is 86 new cases per day, just below where it was (87) on March 20. This is what Dr. Duchin is referring to when he says “we still have way too many cases occurring each day.”
The second graph shows the total case count. With 5,990 total cases as of 11:59 pm yesterday, the compound daily growth rate during the last 7 days has been 1.5%, less than the 2.2% rate during the prior 7 days. At a 1.5% compound daily growth rate, the number of cases doubles every 45.6 days. One week ago, cases were doubling every 32.2 days. Two weeks ago, cases were doubling every 22.0 days. Three weeks ago, cases were doubling every 12.2 days.
The third graph shows the trajectory of cases in King County with the total number of cases on the horizontal axis and the new cases on the vertical axis. Each axis is on a logarithmic scale. Each blue dot represents a daily report. The dot farthest to the left is the February 28 report. Time passes from left to right as the total case count grows. The dot farthest to the right is today’s daily report. We can see a clear change in the trajectory since March 28, shortly after Governor Inslee’s “Stay Home, Stay Healthy” order on March 23.
Will Daugherty welcomes your questions and comments. His email is wdaugherty@pacsci.org