This daily synthesis of the Public Health data is provided by Will Daugherty of Pacific Science Center. Thanks Will!
Public Health has updated the data dashboard. As of 11:59 pm yesterday, April 27, there were 6,054 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in King County, 64 more than the previous day. There have been 427 confirmed deaths in King County due to COVID-19, 7.1% of all confirmed cases.
The numbers that Public Health reports each day include delayed results from previous days.
Observations
The three graphs below chart new cases, total case count and the logarithmic trajectory of cases.
The first graph shows new cases (blue bars) and the 7-day average (red line). Of the 64 new cases reported today, 50 were confirmed yesterday and the remaining 14 were confirmed in previous days but reported to Public Health in the last day, resulting in restatements of the totals for previous days. The 7-day average peaked at 188 on April 1 and has been in decline since then. The trailing 7-day average is 84 new cases per day, just below where it was (87) on March 20.
The second graphshows the total case count. With 6,054 total cases as of 11:59 pm yesterday, the compound daily growth rate during the last 7 days has been 1.5%, less than the 2.1% rate during the prior 7 days. At a 1.5% compound daily growth rate, the number of cases doubles every 47.3 days. One week ago, cases were doubling every 33.0 days. Two weeks ago, cases were doubling every 23.3 days. Three weeks ago, cases were doubling every 13.4 days.
The third graph shows the trajectory of cases in King County with the total number of cases on the horizontal axis and the new cases on the vertical axis. Each axis is on a logarithmic scale. Each blue dot represents a daily report. The dot farthest to the left is the February 28 report. Time passes from left to right as the total case count grows. The dot farthest to the right is today’s daily report. We can see a clear change in the trajectory since March 28, shortly after Governor Inslee’s “Stay Home, Stay Healthy” order on March 23.
Will Daugherty welcomes your questions and comments. His email is wdaugherty@pacsci.org