Today’s report on COVID-19 in King County | Fri Apr 24

Today in their updates, Public Health breaks down the effect of wipes in the sewer systems, empasizing the importance of proper disposal for all of the cleaning materials being used to clean and sanitize our homes.  For the full article, visit the Public Health Insider.   

Otherwise, this daily synthesis of the Public Health data is provided by Will Daugherty of Pacific Science Center.  Thanks Will!

Public Health has updated the data dashboard.  As of 11:59 pm yesterday, April 23, there were 5,689 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in King County, 120 more than the previous day.  There have been 387 confirmed deaths in King County due to COVID-19, 6.8% of all confirmed cases.

The numbers that Public Health reports each day include delayed results from previous days.

Observations

The first graph below shows new cases (blue bars) and the 7-day average (red line).  Of the 120 new cases reported today, 72 were confirmed yesterday and the remaining 48 were confirmed in previous days but reported to Public Health in the last day, resulting in restatements of the totals for previous days.  The 7-day average has been in decline since April 1.  The trailing 7-day average has dropped to 88 new cases per day, the lowest trailing 7-day average since March 20.

The second graph below shows the total case count.  With 5,689 total cases as of 11:59 pm yesterday, the compound daily growth rate during the last 7 days has been 1.7%, less than the 2.5% rate during the prior 7 days.  At a 1.7% compound daily growth rate, the number of cases doubles every 42.3 days.  One week ago, cases were doubling every 28.1 days.  Two weeks ago, cases were doubling every 16.9 days. Three weeks ago, cases were doubling every 9.4 days.

The third graph below shows the trajectory of cases in King County with the total number of cases on the horizontal axis and the new cases on the vertical axis.  Each axis is on a logarithmic scale.  Each blue dot represents a daily report.  The dot farthest to the left is the February 28 report.  Time passes from left to right as the total case count grows.  The dot farthest to the right is today’s daily report.  We can see a clear change in the trajectory since March 28, shortly after Governor Inslee’s “Stay Home, Stay Healthy” order on March 23.  We can also see tight clustering of the most recent reports, consistent with the elongated trajectory in the 7-day average of new cases noted above.

Will Daugherty welcomes your questions and comments.  His email is wdaugherty@pacsci.org