Today, Public Health released updated data on COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths by race and ethnicity. The data shows that in King County, COVID-19 is disproportionally impacting communities of color. There is more to do collectively to support all communities with access to testing, information and social supports to address inequities in health outcomes. For the full update, visit the Public Health Insider.
Otherwise, this daily synthesis of the Public Health data is provided by Will Daugherty of Pacific Science Center. Thanks Will!
Public Health has updated the data dashboard. As of 11:59 pm yesterday, April 29, there were 6,407 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in King County, 99 more than the previous day. There have been 449 confirmed deaths in King County due to COVID-19, 7.0% of all confirmed cases.
The numbers that Public Health reports each day include delayed results from previous days.
Observations
The three graphs below chart new cases, total case count and the logarithmic trajectory of cases.
The first graph shows new cases (blue bars) and the 7-day average (red line). Of the 99 new cases reported today, 81 were confirmed yesterday and the remaining 18 were confirmed in previous days but reported to Public Health in the last day, resulting in restatements of the totals for previous days. The 7-day average peaked at 188 on April 1 and has been in decline since then, but the 7-day average has leveled off during the last several days. The trailing 7-day average is 91 new cases per day. Four days ago it was 86 new cases per day.
The second graph below shows the total case count. With 6,407 total cases as of 11:59 pm yesterday, the compound daily growth rate during the last 7 days has been 1.5%, less than the 1.8% rate during the prior 7 days. If we start with today’s total of 6,407 cases, a 1.5% compound daily growth rate (1.510% to be precise) yields 97 new cases in a day, 709 new cases in a week, and 3,340 new cases in four weeks. With this in mind, I was not surprised that Governor Inslee today extended Phase 1 of the “Stay Home, Stay Healthy” order through May 31.
The third graph below shows the trajectory of cases in King County with the total number of cases on the horizontal axis and the new cases on the vertical axis. Each axis is on a logarithmic scale. Each blue dot represents a daily report. The dot farthest to the left is the February 28 report. Time passes from left to right as the total case count grows. The dot farthest to the right is today’s daily report. We can see a clear change in the trajectory since March 28, shortly after Governor Inslee’s “Stay Home, Stay Healthy” order on March 23.
Will Daugherty welcomes your questions and comments. His email is wdaugherty@pacsci.org