This daily synthesis of the Public Health data is provided by Will Daugherty of Pacific Science Center. Thanks Will!
Public Health has updated the data dashboard. As of 11:59 pm yesterday, April 14, there were 4,697 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in King County, 77 more than the previous day. There have been 312 confirmed deaths in King County due to COVID-19, 6.6% of all confirmed cases.
The numbers that Public Health reports each day include delayed results from previous days.
Observations
The first graph below shows new cases (blue bars) and the 7-day average (red line). While today’s report from Public Health includes an increase of 77 in the total number of cases, only 58 of those were new cases confirmed yesterday (the blue bar on the far right) and the remaining 19 were confirmed in previous days but reported to Public Health yesterday. We see a definite flattening of the curve with the 7-day average continuing to decline since April 1.
The second graph below shows the total case count. With 4,697 total cases as of 11:59 pm yesterday, the compound daily growth rate during the last 7 days has been 2.7%, lower than the 4.9% rate during the prior 7 days. At a 2.7% compound daily growth rate, the number of cases doubles every 25.7 days.
The third graph below shows the trajectory of cases in King County with the total number of cases on the horizontal axis and the new cases on the vertical axis. Each axis is on a logarithmic scale. Each blue dot represents a daily report. The dot farthest to the left is the February 28 report. Time passes from left to right as the total case count grows. The dot farthest to the right is today’s daily report. We can see a clear change in the trajectory since March 28. Today’s report continues the downward trajectory.
Will welcomes your questions and comments. His email is wdaugherty@pacsci.org
What else does Public Health want you to know today?
Otherwise, in today’s update, the Public Health Insider describes new research from the Institute for Disease Modeling suggesting the spread of COVID-19 illness is slowing down thanks to the collective actions of residents in King, Pierce and Snohomish counties, who are broadly following the “stay home” message. See the full update here.