This daily synthesis of the Public Health data is provided by Will Daugherty of Pacific Science Center. Thanks Will!
Public Health has updated the data dashboard. As of 11:59 pm yesterday, April 15, there were 4,809 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in King County, 112 more than the previous day. There have been 320 confirmed deaths in King County due to COVID-19, 6.7% of all confirmed cases.
The numbers that Public Health reports each day include delayed results from previous days.
Observations
The first graph below shows new cases (blue bars) and the 7-day average (red line). While today’s report from Public Health includes an increase in the total number of cases of 112, only 92 of those were new cases confirmed yesterday (the blue bar on the far right) and the remaining 20 were confirmed in previous days but reported to Public Health yesterday. We see a definite flattening of the curve with the 7-day average continuing to decline since April 1.
The second graph below shows the total case count. With 4,809 total cases as of 11:59 pm yesterday, the compound daily growth rate during the last 7 days has been 2.4%, lower than the 4.5% rate during the prior 7 days. At a 2.4% compound daily growth rate, the number of cases doubles every 29.0 days. One week ago, cases were doubling every 15.8 days. Two weeks ago, cases were doubling every 8.6 days. Three weeks ago, cases were doubling every 6.4 days.
The third graph below shows the trajectory of cases in King County with the total number of cases on the horizontal axis and the new cases on the vertical axis. Each axis is on a logarithmic scale. Each blue dot represents a daily report. The dot farthest to the left is the February 28 report. Time passes from left to right as the total case count grows. The dot farthest to the right is today’s daily report. We can see a clear change in the trajectory since March 28, shortly after Governor Inslee’s “Stay Home, Stay Healthy” order on March 23. Today’s report is in line with the downward trajectory.
Will welcomes your questions and comments. His email is wdaugherty@pacsci.org