This daily synthesis of the Public Health data is provided by Will Daugherty of Pacific Science Center. Thanks Will!
Public Health has updated the data dashboard. As of 11:59 pm yesterday, April 16, there were 4,902 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in King County, 93 more than the previous day. There have been 331 confirmed deaths in King County due to COVID-19, 6.8% of all confirmed cases.
The numbers that Public Health reports each day include delayed results from previous days.
Observations
The first graph below shows new cases (blue bars) and the 7-day average (red line). We see a definite flattening of the curve with the 7-day average continuing to decline since April 1. At the same time, the trailing 7-day average is 96 new cases per day, a long way from zero.
The second graph below shows the total case count. With 4,902 total cases as of 11:59 pm yesterday, the compound daily growth rate during the last 7 days has been 2.1%, half the 4.2% rate during the prior 7 days. At a 2.1% compound daily growth rate, the number of cases doubles every 33.0 days. One week ago, cases were doubling every 16.8 days. Two weeks ago, cases were doubling every 9.5 days. Three weeks ago, cases were doubling every 6.3 days.
The third graph below shows the trajectory of cases in King County with the total number of cases on the horizontal axis and the new cases on the vertical axis. Each axis is on a logarithmic scale. Each blue dot represents a daily report. The dot farthest to the left is the February 28 report. Time passes from left to right as the total case count grows. The dot farthest to the right is today’s daily report. We can see a clear change in the trajectory since March 28, shortly after Governor Inslee’s “Stay Home, Stay Healthy” order on March 23. Here is a good video explaining the benefits of plotting the trajectory in this way (3:20 mark if you want to skip the intro).
Will Daugherty welcomes your questions and comments. His email is wdaugherty@pacsci.org
What else does Public Health want you to know today?
Otherwise, in today’s update, the Public Health Insider announced that new cases of COVID-19 in King County have been identified that might have gone undetected, thanks to volunteer participants who collected their own sample at home and sent to a lab for testing. In additional news, testing has been made available for symptomatic first responders and health care workers who cannot access testing through their health care provider or occupational health services. Educational videos about COVID-19 now available in multiple languages. Full article and details available here.